Vestigo Volatility Score: 35%
The EU has pledged to punish Poland for shunning EU legitimacy after a Polish court ruled that segments of EU law were not compatible with the country’s constitution. Analysts fear this is the latest episode in the road to Poland retiring its EU affiliation. Ursula von der Leyen, current president of the European Commission, iterated that the bloc had the means to commence the process to strip Poland of its EU membership through the EU’s Article 7 procedure. Her rhetoric comes as a stark reminder to countries lambasting EU rules. While Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS) would likely seek to distance itself from the constraints set by EU legislators, the country’s population overwhelmingly backs EU membership and a pro-European ideal.
Constraints to consider
- Poland’s population overwhelmingly backs remaining in the EU; a recent poll indicated 90 percent favored EU membership
- The EU has several tools at its disposal to penalize Poland’s actions other than stripping its membership
- Hungary would likely veto any attempts by the EU to strip Poland of its member rights
- The PiS has increasingly distanced itself from EU oversight in the last few years
Withholding EU stimulus from Poland the likeliest outcome
Attacks on Poland from several EU states are mounting. A European Council summit that began October 21 has further highlighted the condemnation. The pressure is large, with EU heavyweights France and Germany at the forefront of the attacks. However, politician rhetoric has focused on the possibility of withholding EU funds rather than commencing any political process that might trigger Polish withdrawal from the EU. That is not to say that withholding funds, particularly in a COVID-19 context, is in any way a mild approach, but it would likely represent the extent of EU sparring.
Conciliatory winds on the European political scene already appear to be placating to negotiation over punishment. Angela Merkel, a bastion of the EU for the last 16 years as chancellor of Germany, highlighted the need to find solutions to the Poland issue. She declared, notwithstanding plenty of criticism, that a compromise was needed. Notably, Merkel will soon relinquish her chancellorship, and the latest EU summit will likely be her last. Even so, her legacy and political clout is hardly diminished.
Poland’s population strongly advocates for continued EU membership
Poland has a hard-lined political establishment vehemently opposed to the premise of EU oversight. Its people, however, are rigorously pro-European. In a recent October poll, 90 percent of Polish respondents declared they favored maintaining EU membership, with only 6 percent against it. The PiS, while historically confrontational, will not jeopardize its EU status for fear of upsetting Poland’s populace. The country maintains a right-wing mandate, but it remains fragile, with recent widescale anti-PiS protests in central Warsaw an indication of the party’s vulnerability.
If Poland itself is unlikely to begin the process that will spearhead a Polish exit, then the burden lies on EU shoulders. Even if the EU decides to begin the process to purge Poland of its EU rights, there is one current constraint that will likely prevent such an outcome. The EU works with veto power. As things stand, Poland is not acting as an island, with Hungary a close backer, aligned by a similar political disposition. When the EU threatened Poland with the EU’s Article 7 in 2017, Hungary vowed to use its veto. This quickly shelved the procedure. Little has changed since 2017, although time will tell if the political status quo in Hungary changes in future election cycles.
The current crisis will catalyze tangible consequences for EU permanence
While Poland’s exit from the EU remains highly unlikely, there are plenty of pitfalls that will result from the current crisis. If the EU withholds stimulus funds, Poland could exercise its own veto powers on crucial policy such as the push for bloc-wide climate initiatives. In addition, Poland’s transgressions give impetus for other governments of the future to stray from the legal parameters set by the EU. This may weaken the ideals of unity ingrained in the architecture of the EU bloc.
We base the percentage of our Volatility Score on the material constraints that determine the potential of a global event becoming a long-term global disruptor. We think that anything above the 75% mark should be studied with particular interest.
Could this reticence to follow EU law be a reaction to a peceived lack of EU support to Poland? For example, as part of its energy transition plan, the EU has set ambitious carbon emission reduction targets. However, Poland is still heavily dependent on coal for its electric production. A rapid changeover to cleaner energy sources risks disrupting economic growth. Does the Polish government feel the EU is providing significant material support to avoid disruption?
It is likely that ideological differences are playing the greatest part in the Warsaw-Brussels clash that we’re seeing. If we look at the spectrum of “conservative” policies promoted by PiS in Poland in the last few years, everything from education to health, the proposals don’t mesh well with EU strategy. A push for clean energy would likely form part of that angst. Even so, that angst needs to reconcile with the benefits of the EU, whether it be freedom of movement or structural funds to Poland, which have been a net gain for Poland. The 90 percent of Poles that favor EU membership are likely astute to that fact.