France | Do the Greens Stand to Gain in the 2022 Presidential Election?

Vestigo Volatility Score: 30%

With the population in France more attuned than ever to the dangers of climate change, analysts may start to predict huge gains for Europe Ecologie Les Verts, otherwise known as the Greens, ahead of the 2022 presidential election. Recent natural disasters in France, as well as in wider Europe, have given any party that places precedence on a progressive environmental platform considerable political capital. This grants the Greens a unique position of political authority. However, the French left has historically been composed of a mélange of different parties. If the Greens had joined under a single banner with the democratic socialists of La France Insoumise in the 2017 presidential election, the group might have contested in the second round. The divisions among France’s left remain today, with any increased support for the Greens likely to simply detract from the prospects of a leftwing candidate and party clinching the presidency. Contentious elements and policy pledges from the Greens’ party will also continue to isolate the median voter, incentivizing only marginal gains come 2022.

Constraints to consider:

• France’s left-wing political parties remain divided, a reality that will ensure a fractured electoral landscape in 2022
• The Greens maintain contentious proposals including a pledge to abandon nuclear power. These proposals likely isolate the median voter

Differences in political elements within the Greens’ party itself threatens to divide opinion and an electorate that might otherwise have been inclined to vote for them. A poll in September to elect the Greens’ presidential candidate will prove fundamental in the party’s prospects in next year’s election. Far-left and militant positions propagated by some of the party’s candidates threatens to isolate potential voters. If the Greens do not elect a moderate candidate like Yannick Jadot, the party will have dug itself a deep hole.

A fractured political landscape in France’s left-of-center

There is little evidence that a divided leftist political landscape, a current reality in the French political paradigm, will benefit a Greens’ candidate. Currently, the party claims only 7 of France’s 348 Senate seats and none of the 577 National Assembly positions. However, these unconvincing figures do in fact mask a notable increase in public support for the party in recent years, as evidenced by surges in electorate backing in recent presidential cycles. From securing 2.31 percent of the vote in 2012, to 6.36 percent in 2017, the party registered notable gains. While that figure might again increase come 2022, there are several other leftist parties that have put on their war hats to divide the electorate. A movement known as Recontre des Justice (Meeting for Justice) aims to unite the Greens and other left-wing parties under a single banner to contest the 2022 presidential election. However, as of late August, there is no indication that the movement has gained any significant traction.

The Greens will also likely dissuade potential support due to some of the party’s contentious elements. Many of these resist the socio-economic reality of France’s energy environment. One major policy proposal of the party would see France abandon nuclear power; a somewhat ironic proposition given the likely short-term expansion in fossil fuels production that would be needed to meet energy demands in such a scenario. Many voters would seek to distance themselves from a proposal that would also act as a thorn in the side of job stability and energy security. France currently produces 70 percent of its electricity from nuclear power.

Support for environmental policies to combat climate change is high

A recent European Commission poll suggested 81 percent of French respondents considered climate change a “very serious problem.” While climate concern is evidently high in 2021, a similar poll from 2015 suggested 69 percent of individuals believed climate change was a very serious issue as well. Even while representing a majority concern in 2015, the Greens failed to capitalize on public sentiment. The Greens, by maintaining radical elements within the party and by ensuring a fractured political landscape to the left of center, will likely dissuade the median voter for years to come, ensuring only marginal gains in the presidential election of 2022.

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